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Prediction for CME (2023-10-14T14:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-14T14:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27301/-1
CME Note: This very faint NW CME is barely seen in C3 and is completely covered by a data gap in COR2A. Its source is an eruption in AR 3466 (N09W27), seen as dimming around the AR and as post-eruptive arcade mostly to the NNW of the AR, as seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-10-14T13Z. Arrival signature was analyzed by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is likely a SIR signature on 2023-10-18: a shock driven by this SIR (an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-18T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-10-14T12:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 431
Longitude (deg): 025W
Latitude (deg): 13N
Half-angular width (deg): 23 

Notes: Dimming and fil channel in EUV from immediate N of AR3466. Scant imagery, C2 only and only 4 frames. Low confidence. Although slower, may well find interplanetary medium swept out by earlier NW filament CME (departing 04:48Z), perhaps passing 1AU as united front.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 80.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-10-15T00:55Z

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